Comparing 2024 to 2023
Welcome to 2025! It doesn’t seem possible that it has been 25 years since the world worried about the Y2K bug destroying us!
It’s always interesting to look back on an entire year and compare the statistics to the year before, so I am comparing all of 2024 to 2023 in Chittenden, Franklin and Grand Isle counties. I look at single family homes and condos together and compare median sales price, number of homes sold, and median days on market until the seller accepted a contract.
I also look at the “absorption rate” which refers to how long it would take to empty the market of current inventory if no new homes came on the market. To calculate the absorption rate, I look at how many homes sold per month in 2024 and compare that to the number of homes currently for sale. 6 months of inventory is considered a neutral market favoring neither buyers nor sellers. Under 6 favors sellers and over 6 favors buyers using the law of supply and demand. We have been in a heavy sellers’ market for years, often with less than one month of inventory.
In Chittenden County in 2024, 1,582 homes sold compared to 1,504 in 2023 for an increase of approximately 5%. The median sales price in 2024 was $505,000 compared to $482,000 in 2023 for an increase of 4.7%. Median number of days on market until a seller accepted an offer was seven in 2024 and six in 2023, nearly identical.
As of January 4, there are currently only 156 active listings in all price ranges in the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) in Chittenden County. Last year an average of 132 homes sold per month. With an inventory of 156 homes, the absorption rate is approximately one month, still favoring sellers. Interesting to note, there are 28 active listings priced $1 million or higher; last year 90 closed. The supply for homes over $1 million is almost four months. The market still favors sellers over $1 million but it will take longer for those homes to sell compared to those priced lower.
In Franklin County, 498 homes closed in 2024 compared to 505 in 2023, nearly the same. The median sales price in 2024 was $364,000 compared to $350,000 in 2023 for an increase of 4%. Median days on market was eight in 2023 compared to 12 in 2024.
There are currently 100 homes for sale in Franklin County. Since an average of 41 homes per month sold in 2024, there is currently nearly a 2.5-month supply of homes on the market. Still a seller’s market.
In Grand Isle County where I live, 110 homes sold in 2024 compared to 106 in 2023. The median sales price in 2024 was $458,000 compared to $425,000 in 2023 for an increase of approximately 7.7%. The median days on market increased from eight in 2023 to 17 in 2024, doubling. Approximately nine homes sold per month in 2024. With 30 active listings, there is a 3 1/3 month supply of homes for sale. This still favors sellers.
What does all this mean? The median days on market until a seller accepts an offer is low and the absorption rate still favors sellers. However, we are not seeing the remarkable increases in median sales prices that we saw in the past. Price increases of 4% to 8% per year are healthy increases. Some years we saw increases of 12% or more. Although the law of supply and demand points to a seller’s market, the increases we are seeing are sensible. In my opinion this is a good trend. We could not maintain the enormous increases of the past.
The number of sales has definitely diminished. I predict that until mortgage rates drop, we will continue to see a lower number of homes sold. Here are the facts: in 2022, 1,781 homes sold in the calendar year. That’s 200 more than in 2024! We were starting to see interest rates creep up in 2022. In 2021 when interest rates were hovering in the 3% range, 2,074 homes sold. That is an increase of nearly 500 homes sold over the number in 2024! With rates still high, we are finding that many people are looking to remodel and stay in their homes versus selling. I think that trend will continue.
As always, but especially now, realistic pricing is key to a sale within the median days on market. About 35% of the homes currently on the market in Chittenden County reduced their price since first listing. To me, this indicates a bit of a shift in the market in spite of median price increases.
