Comparing October of 2023 to October of 2022

Here, we’ll look at single family and condominium sales combined, specifically the median sales price, the percentage of the asking price compared to final price, the number of homes sold, and median days on market. This month we’ll focus on Chittenden County and Franklin County in Vermont.

Interestingly, looking at October year-over-year we see flat growth in Chittenden County, with the only exception being the number of homes sold. It’s important to keep in mind that one month is not enough of a sample to make a broad statement about the future of the market. But it is also important to pause and pay attention to this data.

In Chittenden County in October of 2023, 150 homes sold compared to 180 in 2022. This is a reduction of 17%. This should indicate a supply and demand market which should push the median price up. However, the median sales price in October, 2023 was $477,450 compared to $475,000 in 2022.  A very small difference in price.

In 2023, sellers received 101.35% of their list price indicating that most sales had either multiple offers going over asking or buyers simply bid over asking in attempt to win the bid whether they were in competition or not. Compare this to 2022 when sellers received 102.32%. While 2022 showed an additional percentage over asking, I do not think this indicates a trend or a prediction of the future. Both years found that 7 days on market passed until Sellers received a contract. Clearly, with the housing shortage, homes are not staying on the market long.

In Franklin County we are seeing similar statistics. In 2023, 48 homes sold compared to 57 in 2022 for a 19% reduction year-over-year. The median sales price in 2023 was $325,341 compared to $330,000 in 2022. This is only a 1.5% difference but instead of the price going up in 2023, it was higher in 2022. Given the drop in homes that sold, we should have seen an increase in median sales price due to the law of supply and demand. The fact that the median price went down is significant. The percentage sellers received compared to their list price was almost identical year-over-year: 99.7% in 2023 and 99.63% in 2022. Median days on market were 10 in 2023 and 11 on 2022, nearly identical. 

We can’t make a general statement of what this means for the future, or even the next quarter particularly because year-to-date, the median sales price has risen 6% in 2023 and inventory is down 24%. One month’s statistics is too small a field to be a trend. However, we should pay attention to the data that comes out after November sales close and suggest that sellers and buyers are cautious when making decisions on prices.