Comparing Third Quarter of 2022 to 2021 | 10/14/22
When a quarter ends, I like to compare that quarter to the same time period the year before. I think we get a more accurate picture of the market that way. To that end, I looked at Q3 of 2022 and compared it to Q3 of 2021.
We look at single family homes and condos together and gather statistics in Chittenden and Franklin counties from the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). We consider the number of homes sold, average increase or decrease in sales price, percentage of list price sellers received, and average days on market until the seller accepted an offer.
In Chittenden and Franklin counties, we continue to buck the national trend. In fact, looking at state statistics, Vermont continues to have low inventory and high demand which means prices are continuing to be driven up. However, the market feels unsettled in many consumers’ minds as interest rates climb and inflation is high. We report these numbers with some hesitancy as continued change in the economy can cause a change in the housing market. Read this very interesting article from October 2, 2022, posted on Realtor.com: https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/home-prices-expected-to-fall-even-if-no-recession/
In Chittenden County, the third quarter of 2022 was stronger than Q3 2021 in terms of average sales price, percentage over asking that sellers received and days on market. The number of homes that sold dramatically decreased in 2022 causing a continued supply and demand problem for buyers and a strong market for sellers. 701 homes sold in 2021 compared to 549 in 2022 for a decrease in sales of 22%. The average sales price increased 9% from $474,493 in 2021 to $518,484 in 2022. Days on market decreased slightly from 17 in 2021 to 15 in 2022. Sellers received 102.46% of their asking price in 2022, about 2% more than in 2021. This means that multiple offers are still pushing prices over asking.
Interestingly, in Franklin County the number of homes sold decreased the same percentage as in Chittenden County, from 225 in 2021 to 175 in 2022 for a decrease of 22%. The averages sales price increased 6.6% from $322,513 in 2021 to $344,404 in 2022. The number of days on market decreased 31.5% from 35 days in 2021 to 24 days in 2022. Sellers received approximately 1% more than their asking price in 2021 compared to 2022.
While the data shows a decrease in number of sales and days on market, and an increase in average sales price and percentage of the asking price that sellers received, we all know that this market cannot last forever. We don’t have to be economists to know that the increase in sales price of homes cannot be sustained. Indeed, the Fed has raised rates to slow down the housing market. There is volatility in the stock market, high inflation, and there is political unrest. We are already seeing a market shift in other states. Many buyers who were able to afford a home a year ago have been priced out of the market. Have we seen the top of the market? We will know that answer when the statistics show a decline. We will continue to monitor the market and report our interpretation and predictions. As always, please don’t hesistate to reach out with questions!
